美联储主席耶伦
美联储的QE之路
【环球网综合报道】综合外媒10月30日报道，在为期两天的货币政策结束后，北京时间30日凌晨美联储宣布，削减最后的购债规模150亿美元并从11月起结束QE3。
至此史上最大规模的货币试验行宣告结束，该试验已在市场上引发了有关其效果的激烈争论，尽管美联储称其已达到了减少失业的主要目标。
美联储结束QE基本没有任何悬念。随着联储开始逐步撤走刺激政策，其月度购债规模从850亿美元逐步被削减至150亿美元。
美联储会继续将每月证券到期回笼资金进行再投资，这意味着其4万亿美元的资产负债表规模暂时将保持不变。
为挽美国经济于崩塌边缘，刺激投资和消费者信心，美联储在过去五年中通过三轮量化宽松为市场注入了4万亿美元的流动性。
对于美联储自2008年金融危机以来开始实施的3次QE，目前褒贬不一。有人认为它对稳定金融市场、提振经济起到主导作用，而有人则认为它只是提高了高风险资产的价格，如股市，对经济的作用微乎其微。
以下为美联储10月28-29日货币政策会议后发布的声明全文:
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)自9月会议以来获得的信息显示，经济活动正温和扩张。就业市场状况进一步有所改善，就业增长稳健且失业率下滑。总的来说，一系列就业市场指标显示就业资源利用不足的情况正在逐步减少。家庭支出正温和成长，企业固定投资增加，而楼市复苏仍缓慢。通胀继续处于委员会的较长期目标水准之下。基于市场的通胀补偿指标有所下滑，调查显示较长期通胀预期仍稳定。
委员会将依照法定的目标，寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定。委员会预计在合适的宽松政策下，经济活动将温和扩张，就业市场指标和通胀将向委员会认为符合其双目标的水准靠拢。委员会预计经济和就业市场前景的风险接近平衡。尽管短期内通胀可能受到能源价格等因素的牵制，但委员会认为通胀持续低于2%的可能性自今年年初已经有所降低。
委员会认为自目前的购买资产计划推出以来，就业市场前景已经取得了明显的改善。而且委员会继续认为较广泛经济活动潜在成长力道足以支持在物价稳定的前提下继续向就业最大化取得进展。因此，委员会决定在本月结束购买资产计划。委员会维持把所持机构债和机构MBS回笼本金再投资到机构MBS的现有政策，以及通过标购继续延长所持公债年期。委员会透过持有庞大的较长期证券仓位应会有助于维持宽松的金融市场状况。
为支持向就业最大化和物价稳定的目标继续前进，委员会今日确认在购买资产计划结束和经济复苏强化后的一段长时间内保持高度宽松货币政策立场仍是合适的。在决定维持目前联邦基金利率0-0.25%目标区间多久时，委员会将评估向就业最大化以及2%通胀目标的已实现和预期的进展。评估将考量广泛的信息，包括就业市场状况数据、通胀压力指标和通胀预期，以及金融市场发展读数。委员会继续预计，基于对上述因素的评估，在本月购买资产结束后的一段相当长时间内维持联邦基金利率目前0-0.25%目标区间将可能是合适的，尤其是如果预估通胀继续低于委员会2%的较长期目标，且通胀预期仍牢牢受控。不过，如果未来信息显示向委员会就业和通胀目标所取得的进展要比目前预期更快，那么可能要比目前预期更早上调联邦基金利率目标区间。相反，如果进展较预期缓慢，则可能比目前预期推迟上调利率目标区间。
在委员会决定开始撤走宽松政策时，将采取符合就业最大化和通胀2%较长期目标的均衡措施。委员会目前预期，即便在就业和通胀接近符合目标的水准，经济状况可能在一段时间内都需要美联储维持目标联邦基金利率低于委员会认为的较长期正常水准。
投票赞成美联储货币政策决议的FOMC委员包括:美联储主席叶伦、副主席杜德利、理事布雷纳德、理事费舍尔、达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁费希尔、克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁梅斯特、费城联邦储备银行总裁普洛瑟、理事鲍威尔、理事塔鲁洛。明尼亚波利斯联邦储备银行总裁柯薛拉柯塔投了反对票，他相信鉴于通胀前景持续迟滞以及近期基于市场的较长期通胀预期指标下滑，委员会应承诺维持目前联邦基金利率目标区间至少一两年后，通胀前景才能回到2%，且应继续目前水准的资产购买计划。
英文版
Release Date: October 29, 2014
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level.
（作者： 编辑：徐娟娟）
